The original paper is in English. Non-English content has been machine-translated and may contain typographical errors or mistranslations. ex. Some numerals are expressed as "XNUMX".
Copyrights notice
The original paper is in English. Non-English content has been machine-translated and may contain typographical errors or mistranslations. Copyrights notice
이 문서에서는 비용 추정 기능을 통해 위험 예측을 수행하기 위한 소프트웨어 프로젝트 시뮬레이터의 향상된 기능을 제시합니다. 지금까지 우리는 소프트웨어 개발 프로젝트를 시뮬레이션하기 위한 소프트웨어 프로젝트 시뮬레이터를 개발했습니다. 본 시뮬레이터에서는 Petri net 모델을 이용하여 개발 과정을 기술하였고, 이를 특정 기업의 일부 실제 프로젝트 데이터에 성공적으로 적용하였다. 한편, 프로젝트 관리자를 위한 위험 설문지에 대한 통계적 분석을 통해 "위험한" 프로젝트를 찾아내는 위험 예측 시스템도 제시했습니다. 이 접근 방식에서는 프로젝트에 대해 위험할 확률만 계산되었습니다. 따라서 회사의 관리자들은 소프트웨어 프로젝트가 왜 위험해지는지에 대한 구체적인 증거를 알고 싶었습니다. 본 논문에서는 소프트웨어 프로젝트가 위험해진다는 증거를 제시하기 위해 이전 프로젝트 시뮬레이터를 개선하여 시뮬레이터가 위험 요소를 처리할 수 있도록 노력합니다. 위험 요소를 고려하기 위해 기술 수준의 변동과 최종 기한 압박이 시뮬레이터의 매개변수로 표시될 수 있도록 이전 시뮬레이터를 수정합니다. 사례 연구를 통해 향상된 시뮬레이터가 몇 가지 일반적인 위험 하에서 개발 비용을 추정할 수 있음을 확인합니다. 결과적으로, 시뮬레이터는 위험한 프로젝트의 개발 비용이 추정치를 얼마나 초과하는지 보여줄 것으로 예상할 수 있습니다.
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부
Osamu MIZUNO, Daisuke SHIMODA, Tohru KIKUNO, Yasunari TAKAGI, "Enhancing Software Project Simulator toward Risk Prediction with Cost Estimation Capability" in IEICE TRANSACTIONS on Fundamentals,
vol. E84-A, no. 11, pp. 2812-2821, November 2001, doi: .
Abstract: This paper presents an enhancement of a software project simulator to perform risk prediction with cost estimation capability. So far, we have developed a software project simulator to simulate software development projects. In this simulator, a development process was described using Petri net model, and it was applied to some actual project data in a certain company successfully. On the other hand, we have also presented a risk predicting system to find "risky" projects by statistical analysis on risk questionnaire for project managers. In this approach, only the probability to be risky was calculated for a project. Thus, the managers in the company wanted to know a concrete proof why a software project becomes risky. In this paper, to present the proof that a software project becomes risky, we try to enhance the previous project simulator so that the simulator can deal with risk factors. To consider the risk factors, we modify the previous simulator so that both the fluctuation of skill level and the deadline pressure can be represented by the parameters in the simulator. By using a case study, we confirm that the enhanced simulator can estimate the development cost under some typical risks. As a result, we can expect that the simulator shows how much the development cost of a risky project exceeds an estimate.
URL: https://global.ieice.org/en_transactions/fundamentals/10.1587/e84-a_11_2812/_p
부
@ARTICLE{e84-a_11_2812,
author={Osamu MIZUNO, Daisuke SHIMODA, Tohru KIKUNO, Yasunari TAKAGI, },
journal={IEICE TRANSACTIONS on Fundamentals},
title={Enhancing Software Project Simulator toward Risk Prediction with Cost Estimation Capability},
year={2001},
volume={E84-A},
number={11},
pages={2812-2821},
abstract={This paper presents an enhancement of a software project simulator to perform risk prediction with cost estimation capability. So far, we have developed a software project simulator to simulate software development projects. In this simulator, a development process was described using Petri net model, and it was applied to some actual project data in a certain company successfully. On the other hand, we have also presented a risk predicting system to find "risky" projects by statistical analysis on risk questionnaire for project managers. In this approach, only the probability to be risky was calculated for a project. Thus, the managers in the company wanted to know a concrete proof why a software project becomes risky. In this paper, to present the proof that a software project becomes risky, we try to enhance the previous project simulator so that the simulator can deal with risk factors. To consider the risk factors, we modify the previous simulator so that both the fluctuation of skill level and the deadline pressure can be represented by the parameters in the simulator. By using a case study, we confirm that the enhanced simulator can estimate the development cost under some typical risks. As a result, we can expect that the simulator shows how much the development cost of a risky project exceeds an estimate.},
keywords={},
doi={},
ISSN={},
month={November},}
부
TY - JOUR
TI - Enhancing Software Project Simulator toward Risk Prediction with Cost Estimation Capability
T2 - IEICE TRANSACTIONS on Fundamentals
SP - 2812
EP - 2821
AU - Osamu MIZUNO
AU - Daisuke SHIMODA
AU - Tohru KIKUNO
AU - Yasunari TAKAGI
PY - 2001
DO -
JO - IEICE TRANSACTIONS on Fundamentals
SN -
VL - E84-A
IS - 11
JA - IEICE TRANSACTIONS on Fundamentals
Y1 - November 2001
AB - This paper presents an enhancement of a software project simulator to perform risk prediction with cost estimation capability. So far, we have developed a software project simulator to simulate software development projects. In this simulator, a development process was described using Petri net model, and it was applied to some actual project data in a certain company successfully. On the other hand, we have also presented a risk predicting system to find "risky" projects by statistical analysis on risk questionnaire for project managers. In this approach, only the probability to be risky was calculated for a project. Thus, the managers in the company wanted to know a concrete proof why a software project becomes risky. In this paper, to present the proof that a software project becomes risky, we try to enhance the previous project simulator so that the simulator can deal with risk factors. To consider the risk factors, we modify the previous simulator so that both the fluctuation of skill level and the deadline pressure can be represented by the parameters in the simulator. By using a case study, we confirm that the enhanced simulator can estimate the development cost under some typical risks. As a result, we can expect that the simulator shows how much the development cost of a risky project exceeds an estimate.
ER -